AUGUSTA, Ga. – Tiger Woods has won the Masters five times. In his 26 career starts, however, he never held or shared the first-round lead. Justin Rose has never won the Masters, although he came close last year, losing in a playoff to Rory McIlroy. Nevertheless, no player in Masters history has held or shared the first-round lead more often than Rose, who did so five times. No player has won more Green Jackets than Jack Nicklaus’s six. He only held the 18-hole lead twice. And only one player since 1985, Jordan Spieth, has held the outright 18-hole lead and gone on to win. That's 40 years of data. The moral of these insights? On Thursday evening, don't focus on the 18-hole leader. Pay more attention to the lurking contenders. They are the ones content to let the 'rabbits' enjoy the early admiration, to stay on the fringes, and to calculate the opportune moment to strike. But that requires patience. With all the commotion on day one of golf's first major of the year, it's difficult to temper emotions. Standing on the first tee, as announcer Toby Wilt says “Now Driving”… no wonder players are tempted to go full throttle from the start. Don't do it.
“You have to have some patience,” said Jon Rahm, the 2023 Masters Champion and two-time LIV Golf Individual Champion. “That’s probably the hardest thing to remember, right? It’s four days. Rory started with an even-par round (72) last year and ended up winning.” “I think there was a statistic once that every time Tiger won, he never shot less than 70 in the first round, or something similar. So you can build into it. I think Jack famously said: 'stay patient, stay patient, stay patient until you really open up on the final 18 holes.' “You don’t have to do anything special. I think this is where expectations come in. You think you have to shoot 5-under every day – and that’s not the case.”
Rahm couldn't control himself three years prior. He opened with a 7-under 65, sharing the first-round lead with Viktor Hovland and Brooks Koepka, before dropping to sole second place for the middle 36 holes, shooting rounds of 69-73. He finished the tournament with another 69, which gave him a comfortable four-shot victory over Koepka, who had led after 36 and 54 holes but posted a tough 75 to close. Building early momentum from a great start may occasionally work, but it often comes with more pressure than it's worth.
An 18-hole lead means almost nothing at Augusta National. Woods never needed it, as mentioned. Nor did Sam Snead, a three-time winner. Or Ben Hogan or Tom Watson, each with two victories. Or Scottie Scheffler, who has won two of the last four Masters...
